The war in Ukraine began in the aftermath of the Euromaidan protests, with Russia formally annexing Crimea in March 2014 and subsequently supporting separatists in the Donbas region. This initial phase established the conflict, but the full-scale invasion that reshaped the geopolitical landscape commenced on February 24, 2022, marking a dramatic escalation in hostilities that continues to define the region today.
The Pre-2014 Context and the Annexation of Crimea
To understand the duration of the war, one must look back to the events of 2013 and 2014. The Euromaidan movement, a series of protests against then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to suspend an association agreement with the European Union, led to his ousting in February 2014. In the power vacuum that followed, Russian special forces moved into Crimea, and a controversial referendum was held, resulting in the peninsula’s annexation by Russia. This action, widely condemned by the international community, was the first major act of aggression that extended the timeline of the conflict far beyond its initial spark.
The Ongoing Conflict in the Donbas (2014-2022)
Following the annexation of Crimea, pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luansk regions declared independence, leading to armed clashes with Ukrainian forces. This period, often referred to as the War in Donbas, settled into a grinding conflict characterized by trench warfare, ceasefire violations, and sporadic heavy fighting. The Minsk Protocol, signed in September 2014, and the subsequent Minsk II agreement in February 2015, aimed to establish a ceasefire and political roadmap, but these diplomatic efforts largely failed to end the violence, resulting in a stalemate that persisted for nearly eight years.
The Full-Scale Invasion of 2022
Initial Escalation and Stalled Advances
The war took a definitive turn on February 24, 2022, when Russia launched a large-scale invasion across multiple fronts, aiming to quickly capture Kyiv and overthrow the government. This marked a decisive shift from the frozen conflict of the Donbas to a hot, conventional war. While Russian forces made rapid initial gains near the capital, fierce Ukrainian resistance and logistical challenges stalled their momentum. By the end of April 2022, Russian troops had withdrawn from the Kyiv region, shifting their primary focus to the eastern and southern parts of the country.
Territorial Changes and Attritional Warfare
Since the failed blitzkrieg strategy, the conflict has devolved into a war of attrition concentrated in the Donbas and southern Ukraine. Russia has made incremental gains in areas like Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia, while Ukraine has launched successful counter-offensives, most notably in the Kharkiv region in late 2022 and the Kherson region in late 2022. The battle for Donetsk city, particularly the suburb of Avdiivka, has been a focal point of intense fighting in recent months, highlighting the war's brutal, grinding nature.
Duration and Phases of the Conflict
As of late 2023, the war has been ongoing for over nine years when counting from the annexation of Crimea, and for over 21 months since the full-scale invasion began. The timeline is often divided into distinct phases: the initial invasion period in 2022, the period of positional warfare and trench stabilization through 2022 and 2023, and the current phase characterized by high-casualty offensives and drone warfare. This prolonged duration has transformed the conflict into one of the largest and most destructive wars in Europe since World War II, with no clear end in sight.
